Thursday, 29 October 2015

ECONOMIC DEGLOBALIZATION – FROM HYPOTHESIS TO REALITY by Cătălin Postelnicu, Vasile Dinu, Dan-Cristian Dabija

The Dutch economist van Bergeijk starts [27] from the observation that, during the last years marked by the recent economic-crisis, international trade has undergone a real collapse, comparable to the one recorded during the Great Depression of the 1930s of the last century. To a certain extent, the researcher overemphasises the international trade aspects during the two periods, as well as the completely different causes that determined its breakdown. Still, van Bergeijk broadly demonstrates that the globalization process mainly caused by the international trade fl ows can be summarized in two major causes: social and economic risks and uncertainties caused by the crisis. The author warns of the danger of protectionism revival that seems to be “waiting by the corner”. Therefore, van Bergeijk interprets the decline of international trade to be a clear indication of the deglobalization process of the global economy

Postelnicu, Cătălin, Vasile Dinu, and Dan-Cristian Dabija. "Economic deglobalization–from hypothesis to reality." Economics and Management (2015). 8(2), 4.13

Tuesday, 27 October 2015

Sass and Szalavetz on global value chains

On the other hand, certain studies underline the stabilizing impact of GVCs in terms of sustaining trade levels or at least moderating the fall in trade flows. Thus, seemingly unrelated to our topic, Alfaro and Chen (2010) analysed the reaction and role of foreign direct investment (FDI) during the global financial crisis. They examined firm-level data from more than 100 countries for 2007 and 2009. Their results can be related to the GVC approach, because they distinguished and examined three channels through which FDI impacts upon the performance of companies: production linkages, financial linkages and multinational networks. From our point of view, the most important results are that multinationals engaged in activities with vertical production linkages weathered the crisis better than their local counterparts. On the other hand, horizontal FDI was affected more negatively. Moreover, companies operating as part of a multinational network on average performed better; here again, horizontal production linkages were affected more negatively than vertically integrated linkages. Thus GVCs may have played a stabilizing role. Van Bergeijk (2013) analysed trade data for 42 countries, and found that international value chains had a major alleviating impact on the fall in world trade during 2008–09.

Sass, Magdolna, and Andrea Szalavetz. "Crisis-related changes in the specialization of advanced economies in global value chains." Competition & Change 18.1 (2014): 54-69

Wednesday, 22 July 2015

World trade down

Shortterm contractions of world trade have occured regularly since the 2008/9 trade collapse but this time things mayy be different according to CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Analysis: "Because of the volatility of monthly trade figures, momentum is the preferred measure of trade growth.Trade momentum was -1.3% in May (non-annualised), down from -1.2% in April and the lowest reading  May 2009. "

Wednesday, 4 June 2014


 On the Brink of Deglobalization is available on, and have set the front matter, index and any introductory chapter is free to download.

but you can also find the URL web address for individual chapters as well

Monday, 19 May 2014

Risk of deglobalisation

From Deep Globalisation to the Risk of Deglobalisation: the Rise of Local-Contentism

By Marcos Troyjo
As the world transitions from ‘Deep Globalisation to Deglobalisation’, economic policies based on a ‘Doctrine of Local Content’ take center stage. As a consequence, the global economy underperforms. Below, Marcos Troyjo argues that Reglobalisation can only resurface if countries move away from ‘Local-Contentism’ and closer to a productive interdependence turning out ‘Made in the World’ goods.
Read more in world financial review

Monday, 17 June 2013

Arnaud Mehl,Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper No. 148

Globalisation is characterised by long-run historical cycles, however. This includes a significant progress up to 1914; a massive retrenchment in the interwar period; a substantial revival after 1945; and, with the onset of the global financial crisis of 2007-09, some have openly discussed risks of “de-globalisation” (e.g. Van Bergeijk, 2010).