Even without concrete and observable trade conflicts, the implied uncertainty about trading possibilities will influence the extent of specialization and the pattern of specialization as well (p. 5)
Wednesday, 29 September 2010
Message do 2 sep 2010 8:48
From: "Richard Baldwin"
To: Peter van Bergeijk
Subject: Your paper on trade collapse.
Attachments: Attach0.html 8K
Your paper asserts: "the main stream narrative that links the strength and speed of the world trade collapse in 2008-9 to (i) lacking trade finance, (ii) international value chains and (iii) ‘murky’ protectionism."
I think you’ve got that wrong. See http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/4297 for what is the mainstream explanation. It was a demand shock multiplied by a composition effect.
The inaugural address was published in Dutch in the ooggetuigen (eywitnesses) section of Economisch Statistische Berichten - Ooggetuigen: De mythe van de aanbodketen. C. van Marrewijk JAARGANG 95 NR. 4590