Wednesday, 29 September 2010

TRADE CONTRACTION PATTERN AFTER CRISIS:

Z Yamin, H Haoshen - TRADE CONTRACTION PATTERN AFTER CRISIS:  Trade and Finance Association Conference Papers, 2010

Even without concrete and observable trade conflicts, the implied uncertainty about trading possibilities will influence the extent of specialization and the pattern of specialization as well (p. 5)

Congress of Diplomats

you've got that wrong

Message do 2 sep 2010 8:48

From: "Richard Baldwin"

To: Peter van Bergeijk

Subject: Your paper on trade collapse.

Attachments: Attach0.html 8K
Hi,
Your paper asserts: "the main stream narrative that links the strength and speed of the world trade collapse in 2008-9 to (i) lacking trade finance, (ii) international value chains and (iii) ‘murky’ protectionism."
I think you’ve got that wrong. See http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/4297 for what is the mainstream explanation. It was a demand shock multiplied by a composition effect.


Richard Baldwin

Marrewijk, C. van, 2009, ‘Spatial diffusion of technology and the trade collapse’

At the end of his inaugural address, Charles van Marrewijk at Utrecht University pointed out that a better titel would have been COLLAPSING TRADE FLOWS: THE SUPPLY CHAIN MYTH. Indeed. Van Marrewijk uncovers similar patterns as On the brink of globalization where his study is extensively quoted. Van Marrewijk uses the Grubel-Loydd index for intra-industry trade and studies both exports and imports Van Marrewijk analyzes the depth, the duration and the inclination (steepness) of the trade cycle from peak to trough. In addition he uses four different ways to define peak and trough, namely the original raw data, a 5-month centered average, and deviations from trend based on either of these two series. In no case does Van Marrewijk find the hypothesized positive correlation between on the one hand, the share of intra-industry trade and on the other hand, the depth, duration and inclination of export and/or import trade declines.

The inaugural address was published in Dutch in the ooggetuigen (eywitnesses) section of Economisch Statistische Berichten - Ooggetuigen: De mythe van de aanbodketen. C. van Marrewijk JAARGANG 95 NR. 4590