Sunday, 9 October 2016

WORLD TRADE: CARDIAC ARREST OR DIZZY SPELL

Haugh et al 2016, Cardiac Arrest or Dizzy Spell: OECD policy paper 18

The concensus view on the trade collapse 2008/9 appears to be changing. In 2009 value chains and protectionism were seen as the magnifiers, multipliers if not culprits of the world trade collapse. A recent OECD study by David Haugh, Alexandre Kopoin, Elena Rusticelli, David Turner and Richard Dutu shows what was claimed and analyzed in On the brink of deglobalization: neither value chains nor protectionsim acted as triggers in 2008/9 and value chains may have been an important factor behind the resilience of world trade (that is the recovery in 2010)

World trade: slow-down or new collapse


Clearly world trade is experiencing difficult  times. the graph above reports two leading indicators. The World trade monitor of CPB Netherlands bureau for economic policy advice (www.cpb.nl) and the container throughput index of the Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics. Bot indicators have been corrected for seasonal influences and provide the most recent indication of the development of world trade. Although the level of the indicators is different the movements are into the same direction and suggest that there is more to the decline in world trade than the price decrease of oil. Container throughput is real and the world trade monitor is reported at constant prices.